Uncertainty and the Covid‐19 pandemic: A case study for disaggregated industrial production
Yazarlar (4)
Ali Yavuz Polat
Türkiye
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Erhan Muğaloğlu Erciyes Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Hasan TEKİN Karabük Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Edanur Kılıç
Makale Türü Özgün Makale (SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale)
Dergi Adı Scottish Journal of Political Economy (SSCI) (Q3)
Dergi ISSN 0036-9292 Wos Dergi Scopus Dergi
Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler SSCI
Makale Dili İngilizce Basım Tarihi 04-2025
Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa – / 0 / – DOI 10.1111/sjpe.70008
Makale Linki https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.70008
UAK Araştırma Alanları
Finans Teorisi İşletme Finansı
Özet
ABSTRACTEmploying principal component analysis (PCA), we build novel economic uncertainty indices for Turkey. Economic/business uncertainty and sectoral uncertainty indices sensitively detect important economic and political events in Turkey as well as Covid‐19‐induced uncertainty spiking to an all‐time high during the outbreak, providing handy tools for policymakers. Then, we analyze the impact of the pandemic on the Turkish economy through general and sectoral industrial production indices employing structural VAR models. Moreover, we examine the forecast accuracy of the uncertainty indices and show that our uncertainty measures are not biased. Out‐of‐sample forecast power results suggest that the services‐related uncertainty index significantly better proxies Covid‐19 stimulated structural shocks. This is due to the immediate significant impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on the service sector since lockdown measures initially affect this sector.
Anahtar Kelimeler
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
Atıf Sayıları
Uncertainty and the Covid‐19 pandemic: A case study for disaggregated industrial production

Paylaş

İletişim
  • Karabük Üniversitesi Merkez Kampüsü Kılavuzlar Mahallesi 413. Sokak No: 10 Merkez Karabük
  • unis@karabuk.edu.tr 444 04 78 (370)418-7880
Sosyal Media
Talentsoft Yazılım Talent Yazılım
Tasarım ve Programlama #2025